Introduction…………………………………….……………………………………………………………..3
1. Inflation in 2004…………….…………………………………………………………………..…….5
1.1. Inflationary processes………….……………...………………………………………5
1.2. Fiscal policy…………….……………………………………………………………………12
1.3. Monetary policy…………………………………………………………………………..14
2. Inflation in 2005………………..…………………………..……………………………………...24
3. Inflation in 2006………………………………….………………………………………………….25
Conclusion………………………………………….……………………………………………………….27
Reference…………………………………………………………………………………………………...27 In current work the inflation in Kazakhstan for the period of 2004-2006 will be discussed. Also, will be given general information for the period of 1992-2007.
In order to discuss inflation some key terms and concepts are introduced below.
Inflation in the Republic of Kazakhstan is calculated based on a consumer price index (CPI) that characterizes the change in the overall level of prices for goods and serves acquired by the population for personal consumption in the cities of Astana and Almaty, all the oblast centers, and a sample set of cities and rayon centers. The consumer basket for calculating inflation reflects the structure of household expenditures and comprises 508 goods and services making up the largest proportion in the population's consumption.
Core inflation consists of inflation excluding short-term irregular price changes influenced by certain factors of an administrative, one-off, or seasonal nature.
Since 2004 the Republic of Kazakhstan Statistics Agency has been calculating baseline inflation using five different methodologies:
• core inflation-1: inflation excluding price increases for vegetables, fruits, gasoline, and coal;
• core inflation-2: inflation excluding price increases for vegetables, fruits, regulated services, and energy resources;
• core inflation-3: excluding the five maximum and five minimum price increases;
• core inflation-4: trimmed mean; and
• core inflation-5: median CPI.
In the framework of the Enterprise monitoring carried out by the National Bank since 2002, the inflationary expectations of enterprises of the real sector are surveyed. This survey covers qualitative assessments of managers of the surveyed enterprises (“will rise,” “will fall,” and “will remain unchanged”) with regard to production activities of the enterprises, including demand for and prices of finished output and for raw and other materials used in production for the preceding and the upcoming quarters.
The diffusion index is presented as the number of “will rise” responses and half of the “unchanged” responses. This index represents a summary indicator characterizing the dynamics of change in the indicator being examined. An index figure above 50 signifies an increase in the indicator, and a figure lower than 50 represents a decline in the indicator.
Budget receipts include revenue (tax receipts, nontax receipts, and receipts from the sale of fixed capital), the repayment of budget credits, and receipts from the sale of financial assets of the state.
Budget expenditures comprise expenses (current and capital), budget credits, and acquisition of financial assets.
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