In a context of events, which have taken place in region after September 11, the role of Russia in Central Asia a little has varied, as well as all has varied geopolitical formulated in region last years.
In these conditions of one of important external policies of tasks of Kazakhstan is the adjusting of tactics and strategy in ratios with Russia, which would correspond by modern geopolitical realities and long-term interests of our country.
Central Asia and Caspian Sea go into a region of traditional interests of Russia.
In this region it always had the important national interests, which, however, in different periods were defined by different circumstances and factors. The key interests of Russia in this region at the present stage can be reduced to the following.
Central Asia has the important value in a safety of Russia.
The importance of this region for Russia is stipulated not oil but the factor implying from desire to save influence on Caspian Sea;
Kazakhstan region is of interest for Russia territory, where its compatriots live. Are those, on our sight three dominating interest of Russian Federation, dominating, Caspian – Central Asia region at the present stage. It in this region has also other interests trade, cosmotron of “Baikonur”, industrial communications etc. but now in basic they carry not so priority character.
Until recently Russia ensured above-mentioned interests without the special efforts. All countries of region in the majority were that or are otherwise dependent on Russian Federation. But the events, which have occurred after September of the last year, have brought in serious enough variations to a geopolitical situation in Central Asia and have affected on common position of forces in region. One of the occurred key variations consists in that the break in sphere of traditional vital interests of Russia is watched which today faces to necessity Central Asia of policy.
As a whole by 2001 in Central Asia the private tripartite balance between interests of Russia, China, USA was folded.
The given balance can figuratively be presented as a triangle, in which upper corner Russia, in one lower corner - USA, in the friend - China settled down. These countries have occupied three strategic niches in Caspian – Central Asia region: military-political, oil and gas, commodity-raw.
The Russian presence at region last years was ensured, first of all, with strategic military-political component. A peaking of a problem extremism and the terrorisms in Central Asia, activation Islamic of driving of Uzbekistan, irreconcilable part of Integrated Tadjik opposition at immediate support Talib have established in 1999 - 2001 real threat for the countries of region.
In these conditions only Russia was considered by the states of region as the real factor of safety. It is enough to recollect, that these years intensive two-sided ratios in military and military-engineering sphere were especially made active.
Thus, USA has occupied oil and gases niche in the region, and Russia and China by virtue of economic circumstances could not compete with it in this direction. In this geopolitical triangle Russia all the same occupied a little bit dominating positions. This majoring in many respects was determined by strategic military-political component, which role in the international ratios is traditionally high.
In a context of a common global situation Russia forced to be reconciled with a determination of military basses of USA in region of its traditional interests.
Taking into account all these circumstances, Russia faces to necessity of the policy in Central Asia. The further prolongation above-mentioned tendencies will have painful enough consequences for it.
Despite of some variation of a role of Russia in Central Asia, for Kazakhstan the strategic interests in a ratio of Russia continue to be saved. The necessity of activation of ratios with Russia and holding of constructive cooperating on much important directions for Kazakhstan is dictated as well by that in case of essential weakening of Russia in Central Asia it will be fraught with negative consequences. The situation in region can become unstable and badly forecast.
In the whole traditional interests of Kazakhstan in a ratio of Russia are founded on four factors having long-time character.
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